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Make sure you read my cash game article (Studs vs. Duds) this week if you’re playing cashing LUs.

NFL Week 11 GPP PicksIt’s Thursday and this week’s injuries are becoming clearer at this point. In this article I’m going to share the best locks and value plays to target in the big GPP contests at FanDuel (Get 5 FREE beginner contest tickets when joining).

The DFS schedule is back to normal at DraftKings this week. The Millionaire Maker now has a $27 buy-in, but on the bright side, there are less entries. The $3 NFL $1.2M Play Action contest is back too and pays $50,000 to first place.

Need more help building your line-ups? Use the models and projections built by pros at Fantasy Labs.

*Prices and rankings are from DraftKings.

QB targets in GPPs for NFL week 11

I discussed Aaron Rodgers ($7600) in the cash game article and he’s in play in GPPs. He scored 32.54 FPs last week and that was in a loss where he threw 2 INTs. He has been running the football the last few weeks too.

I like the idea of running Rodgers naked in GPPs, but you could stack him with Davante Adams ($6700).

Rodgers will likely go a bit overlooked also since Ben Roethlisberger ($7500) is a similar price. Big Ben could have a huge day in Cleveland. The Browns allow 275.4 PYPG (27th), 29.7 PPG (31st) and rank 30th against the QB position.

You can pivot to Marcus Mariota ($6700) and save even more salary cap. The Titans play the Colts who have one of the worst secondary units this season. Indy are allowing 287.9 PYPG (31st) and 26.2 PPG (28th).

Mariota scored 31.92 FPs (W9) and 27.8 FPs (W10), while scoring 8 TDs the last two weeks.

A couple QB punts I’m eyeing are Tyrod Taylor ($5600) and Blake Bortles ($5400). Taylor is a gamble on the road against Cincy, but the Bengals rank 29th against QBs and Taylor is capable of hurting them on the ground.

Taylor has rushed for 35+ rushing yards and 1 TD in each of the Bills last three games. Buffalo are also coming off a bye.

Bortles isn’t a pretty pick, but he has been getting it done and he has a high ceiling at his price point. So far this season the Lions have allowed 20 passing TDs (30th), so a 300+ passing yard / 3+ TDs performance isn’t out of the question.

RB targets in GPPs for NFL week 11

At the top end we have Le’Veon Bell ($8800) and DeMarco Murray ($8200). With both priced above $8K, you’re likely going to need to choose one of them and Bell definitely has the better match-up.

Murray is awesome in cash and he has solid GPP upside, but something around 20 FPs wouldn’t surprise me, which isn’t going to cut it at this price level. Bell has a higher ceiling against the lowly Browns run defense (143.7 RYPG – 31st).

Bell offers more security too. If the Steelers somehow go down early, Bell will be disruptive in the pass game. He could easily rush for 100+ yards and 1 TD, while hauling in 7+ receptions for 50+ yards and 1 TD.

LeGarrette Blount ($6400) will be the chalk play at RB, but can you pass him up? The 49ers allow 180.4 RYPG (32nd) and 30.6 PPG (32nd). They rank last against RBs and Blount will run through this defense if Bill Belichick gives him the carries.

Blount has 18+ carries in each of the Patriots last three games, so the touches should be there.

Rob Kelley ($4400) is my #1 value play at RB. Kelley has seen 21 and 22 carries the last two weeks for the Redskins. He gets a tough match-up against the Packers 4th ranked rushing defense (84.4 RYPG), but he’s getting the touches.

All it takes is one long TD run at this price to have a good day and if you remember, Murray rushed for a 75-yard TD on his first rushing attempt against GB last week. I’ll also have exposure to Jeremy Hill ($4400) in some LUs.

Hill is a complete punt, but he has a high ceiling. He scored 30.2 FPs in week 7 against Cleveland. Hill is averaging 18.3 FPs at home compared to 7.0 FPs on the road. Cincy host the Bills who rank 20th against the run (108.9 RYPG).

In GPPs you want big play potential. Hill can take it to the house any time he touches it and he won’t be highly-owned.

FanDuel NFL Week 11 Picks

WRs to target in GPPs for NFL week 11

Many of the top WRs have great match-ups this week.

Antonio Brown ($9500), Odell Beckham Jr. ($8500), A.J. Green ($8300) and Mike Evans ($8100) are all in play in GPPs. The problem will be trying to get the right combination, as we clearly can’t roster more than two elite WRs.

I recommend fading Brown at his price, as he doesn’t offer enough flexibility. OBJ is heating up and he has a match-up against the Bears who only allow 242.8 PYPG (12th), but rank 30th against WRs.

OBJ has five TDs in the Giants last six games. He hasn’t had a gain longer than 26 yards in the Giants last three games, but the Bears have allowed 29 plays of 20+ yards (14th). If OBJ goes off, you’ll need a piece of him to win a big GPP.

T.Y. Hilton ($7700) and Allen Robinson ($7400) could post elite fantasy scores at a bit of a discount this week.

Robinson should be stacked with Bortles. Bortles has targeted Robinson 40 times the last three weeks. Robinson scored 20.6 FPs two weeks ago and followed that up with 30.7 FPs last week (9 receptions for 107 yards and 1 TD).

Hilton has killed many LUs in recent weeks, but he has also shown us his 30+ FP ceiling recently. What Hilton will we see this week against the Titans who rank 29th against WRs? I’m banking on Hilton posting 25+ FPs at home off a bye.

One of Steve Smith Sr. ($6000) or Mike Wallace ($5500) will go off. Smith has a better floor in cash, but Wallace is the best bet in GPPs, as he’s a deep threat. Wallace had a dud last week, but scored 25+ FPs in week 7 and 9.

The Ravens can’t run the football and they’re playing Dallas who rank 3rd against the run (82.6 RYPG) and 21st against the pass (263.1 PYPG). Joe Flacco ($5500) and Wallace would cost $11K and allow you to spend up elsewhere.

My sneaky play is Terrelle Pryor Sr. ($5600) against the Steelers. Cleveland should be down and have to air it out. Pryor has seen 12, 7 and 9 targets in the Browns last three games. Pittsburgh struggle against the pass too (278.1 PYPG – 28th).

If you need a punt, Tyreek Hill ($4500) is in play if Jeremy Maclin has to sit out again and that appears to be the case.

TE targets in GPPs for NFL week 11

If you have the salary, Jordan Reed ($5900) and Delanie Walker ($5700) offer the highest ceilings without having to risk spending up on Rob Gronkowski ($7100). I’m fading Gronks, as the Patriots should simply pound the football.

Reed and Walker have similar ceilings (30+ FPs), but Walker is in the better match-up. Walker has seen 9 and 11 targets the last two weeks and now gets to go up against the Colts who rank 29th against TEs.

I’ll be going back to Zach Miller ($3800) as a cheap punt despite costing me last week. Alshon Jeffery is suspended for the next month. Miller has already been seeing 10 targets lately and that number should increase.

The Giants rank 20th against TEs and Miller is a nice pivot from the more popular Cameron Meredith ($4100) if you want exposure to the Bears offense. Jay Cutler loves dumping it off to Miller and he’ll be throwing a lot this week.

DST targets in GPPs for NFL week 11

The New York Giants DST ($3500) has the type of upside we’re looking for this week in GPPs. They host the Bears who are without Jeffery. Cutler has been a turnover machine and the Giants defense is finally playing as expected.

We won’t get killed by the Giants DST and they could be the DST to explode for 20+ FPs.

Need to go cheap at DST? There isn’t much out there, but the Philadelphia Eagles ($2500) are interesting. The Eagles play the Seahawks in Seattle, which will be tough, but this isn’t the same Seattle team as in year’s past.

The Eagles DST have been struggling the last three weeks and haven’t exceeded 5.0 FPs. They’ll be very low owned, but they’ve shown they have 20+ FP potential. You could do a lot worse, plus the Eagles DST are real cheap.

NFL week 11 over/under best bet

Wager on every NFL game at Bookmaker this weekend and get a cash bonus.

Bills vs. Bengals Over 47 Points (-110)

When the Bills (4-5) and Bengals (3-5-1) play each other there’s always points. The last seven H2H games have gone over the total. These teams played last season in week 6 and the Bengals won 34-21 in Buffalo.

 
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