Home / NFL / Daily Fantasy NFL Week 14 GPP Locks and Value Plays

 

There are only a few weeks left before the NFL playoffs begin. We’re running out of time to win a big GPP, but there are plenty of daily fantasy NFL week 14 GPP contests to take down at DraftKings, FanDuel and Fantasy Aces.

DraftKings Millionaire Maker Week 14The biggest GPPs are hosted at DraftKings. The NFL Fantasy Millionaire Maker ($27 buy-in) is paying out $1 million to first place and is easily the best contest to play if you’re looking to gamble and have a chance to win a huge payout.

FanDuel is hosting the $25 NFL Sunday Million, which has a $1.2 million prize pool and $200,000 first place payout.

Lastly, you don’t want to miss the $55 Hail Mary GPP at Fantasy Aces. The top 22% of the contest will win money.

The regular season may be winding down, but it’s never too late to improve your DFS knowledge. Fantasy Labs offers premium tools, models and analytics to ensure members have an edge against the rest of the field.

*Fantasy statistics, scoring and prices are from DraftKings.

NFL week 14 DFS targets at QB

QB is going to be tough this week and an important position to get right, as I’m projecting a lot of duds.

Andrew Luck ($6900) is my #1 QB in cash and I’ll have him in GPPs too, albeit his ceiling is likely 30 FPs. The Colts are at home this week against the Texans who rank #5 against the pass (208.4 PYPG) and #14 in points allowed (21.4 PPG).

Luck is averaging 22.9 FPPG on the season, but that number increases to 24.4 FPPG at home. With the Colts and Texans fighting for the lead in the AFC South and the Colts run game not producing, Luck is in line for a monster game.

The next QB on my radar for GPPs is Jameis Winston ($6700), as the Buccaneers host the Saints.

New Orleans allow 276.8 PYPG (31st) and 26.4 PPG (29th). This is the only week 14 game with an over/under north of 50 points. Winston has been consistent, but he hasn’t exceeded 23+ FPs since week 3.

Based on upside alone, Winston is a great GPP target that won’t break the bank.

Lastly, I’ll be rostering Andy Dalton ($6100) in GPPs. The Browns host the Bengals in a game that could go overlooked due to the low game total (O/U 42.5 points). However, no team has allowed more passing TDs than the Browns (28) this season.

Dalton scored 23.32 FPs in week 7 against Cleveland and he’s coming off his best game of the season against Philly (25.18 FPs). Dalton has yet to exceed 30+ FPs or throw for 3+ passing TDs in a game. I expect that to change this week.

NFL week 14 DFS targets at RB

This isn’t the week to get cute and try to fade David Johnson ($9800). He really should be 100% owned at DK.

Johnson has scored 27+ FPs in seven of the Cardinals last eight games and 33+ FPs in the Cardinals last three. This should be a prime spot for Johnson too, as the Dolphins allow 130.3 RYPG and 22.7 PPG (19th).

If you’re playing on a DFS website with full-point PPR, lock Johnson in as your RB1.

Le’Veon Bell ($9000) is in play, but will be tough to roster with Johnson. Bell is a great pivot away from Johnson in a few of your LUs. Bell has scored 27+ FPs in each of the Steelers last four games.

Bell has rushed for 100+ yards the last three weeks and he now gets a Bills defense that ranks #26 against the run (116.3 RYPG) and 28th in rushing TDs allowed (15). Just keep an eye on the weather in Buffalo before kick-off.

You could conceivably stack Johnson/Bell if you went cheap at QB with someone like Eli Manning ($5500).

I’m still not completely sold, but Jeremy Hill ($5800) is tempting despite the huge price increase. The 49ers have been killed almost every week on the ground. SF are allowing 140.6 RYPG (31st), 28.0 PPG (31st) and 17 rushing TDs (32nd).

Hill averaged 1.8 YPA in week 12 and 1.4 YPA in week 13, so his ownership levels will be depressed.

Isaiah Crowell ($3900) offers salary relief at RB, which is tough to find this week. The Browns are coming off a bye and while this pick is dependent upon game script, I expect the Browns to keep it close throughout.

Cincy rank #24 against RBs, #23 against the run (114.9 RYPG) and #14 in points allowed (21.4 PPG). Crowell has 5+ catches in each of the Browns last two games. If he finds the endzone at this price, he’ll easily exceed value.

FanDuel NFL Week 14

NFL week 14 DFS targets at WR

The most expensive WR this week is Mike Evans ($8900) and I’ll have exposure to him. He’s a great stack with Winston, as New Orleans are regularly beat deep (NO allowed 9 plays of 40+ yards – 22nd in NFL).

Evans is a boom or bust play. Some weeks you need him and some weeks he’ll kill any chance of winning you had.

At the top end I also like Odell Beckham Jr. ($8000) against the Cowboys. OBJ only scored 11.3 FPs in week 1 against Dallas, but Beckham Jr. is much more productive at home (23.1 FPPG at home vs. 15.6 FPPG in away games).

OBJ has 20+ FPs in three of the Giants last four games, so he isn’t likely to kill LUs, plus he has 40+ FP upside. If the Giants are going to stay in this game they’ll need to attack the Cowboys 29th ranked passing defense (276.3 PYPG).

I love Brandin Cooks ($6400) against the Buccaneers. TB only allow 249.9 PYPG (15th), but they’ve allowed more plays of 40+ yards (13) than any other team this season. Cooks is the WR on the Saints that’ll beat the Bucs on deep routes.

He doesn’t have great name recognition and he definitely isn’t cheap, but Tyrell Williams ($6100) is a great play. Williams has a TD in each of the Chargers last four games. He’s capable of scoring 25+ FPs in a prime spot against the Panthers.

Carolina allow 276.8 PYPG (30th), 25.1 PPG (28th) and rank 30th against WRs.

Taylor Gabriel ($4300) scored 9.4 FPs and missed value last week, but he had a hard-fought TD negated because of a penalty early in the game. He still finished the game with 5 receptions of 6 targets.

The Falcons play the Rams this week in LA and the Rams rank 28th against WRs. Gabriel offers salary relief and he has big play potential. He could hit value in a single play. Just make sure Mohamed Sanu is held out and Gabriel starts.

NFL week 14 DFS targets at TE

Tyler Eifert ($6000) is the #1 TE on the board and will be extremely popular, so I’ll be fading him. The Bengals will be able to share the wealth offensively against the Browns defense, so I feel that limits Eifert’s upside and his price is too high.

I’ll have some exposure to Jimmy Graham ($5500) and Ladarius Green ($3900).

Graham has become a larger part of the Seahawks offense as the season progresses and the match-up against Green Bay is ideal. The Packers rank 26th against TEs. Graham has a TD in two of his last three games and he has a great ceiling for a TE.

Green scored 26 FPs last week. Was it an anomaly or is Green going to become a bigger part of the Steelers offense? I’m going to throw a couple darts on Green in some of my GPP line-ups.

My top TE is Zach Ertz ($4900) against the Redskins. Ertz is coming off his best game. He had 9 receptions on 15 targets for 79 yards and 1 TD (22.9 FPs). The Eagles are passing more and Ertz has been one of the main beneficiaries.

NFL week 14 DFS targets at DST

You could make a case for a lot of DSTs this week, but my top pick for GPPs is the Detroit Lions DST ($3600).

The Lions host the Bears in a divisional match-up. The Lions DST has scored double-digits in two of the last three weeks and they’re playing Chicago who average 246.1 PYPG (17th), 102.1 RYPG (19th) and 16.3 PPG (30th).

I’m also going to have exposure to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers DST ($2400). Sure, it’s risky against Drew Brees, but TB are at home and they’ve been playing great defense. TB have 7 INTs, 4 fumble recoveries and 12 sacks the last four weeks.

Brees has been known to implode on the road and the Buccaneers could end up winning someone a GPP this week.

NFL week 14 ATS predictions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers –3 (+105) at Bovada.lv

The Buccaneers (7-5) have won four games in a row. The offense is playing well, but the defense has really stepped up the last month. The Saints are 2-3 on the road and 1-2 in division games this season. Don’t overthink this one and bet the Bucs.

 
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