Home / NFL / NFL Week 11 Daily Fantasy Studs vs. Duds Analysis

 

Last week went relatively fine in cash, but most of my Jay Ajayi line-ups busted out early. This will be the last week before Thanksgiving next Thursday. There should be some great contests running on Thursday next week.

It has become tough playing cash anywhere you play, but I still prefer DraftKingsFantasy Aces NFL Week 11 Cash Games. You can choose any opponent from the pool of players on DK, which will allow you to easily avoid going heads-up against any experts.

Alternatively, FanDuel and FantasyAces are both great DFS websites for NFL.

Interested in taking your level of play to the next level? Join Fantasy Labs. Thousands of grinders utilize Fantasy Labs to build models and you can also use some of the same models used by the pros.

NFL week 11 studs at QB, RB, WR, TE and DST

  • QB: Aaron Rodgers $9100 (FanDuel) and $7600 (DraftKings)

I’m going back to the well this week with Rodgers. This week the Packers are on the road against the Redskins and after losing three in a row, this is a must-win game for GB if they want to keep pace in the NFC North.

The Redskins rank 12th against QBs, but Rodgers has been match-up proof lately. Washington allow 250.2 PYPG (15th) and 22.6 PPG (16th). With Rodgers likely dropping back 50+ times again, the yards will be there.

Jordy Nelson may struggle against Josh Norman, but the Packers have a wealth of WRs to target.

  • RB: Le’Veon Bell $9100 (FanDuel) and $8800 (DraftKings)

Bell has jumped in pricing and is the most expensive RB this week, but you can’t fade him. Cleveland allow 143.7 RYPG (31st) and 29.7 PPG (31st) this season. They also rank 27th against RBs at DK.

The reason Bell is so valuable in cash is because he’s a huge part of the pass game. He hasn’t seen less than 6 targets in a game and he has 25 receptions in the last three games alone. He has been struggling on the ground, though.

With 100+ rushing yard potential against a poor run defense, the sky is the limit this week for Bell.

I also recommend LeGarrette Blount ($7300 at FanDuel and $6400 at DraftKings) in cash against SF. RBs have been torching the 49ers all season. Blount just scored 24.9 FPs (DK) against Seattle and that should be his floor this week.

  • WR: T.Y. Hilton $7900 (FanDuel) and $7700 (DraftKings)

Odell Beckham Jr. ($9000 at FD and $8500 at DK) and Mike Evans ($8000 on FD and $8100 on DK) are in play, but I’m loading up on Hilton in cash. I’ll have all three in LUs, but Hilton is my #1 cash WR in week 11.

The Colts are coming off their bye week and hopefully they’ve worked out the offense. Hilton is averaging 18.2 FPPG and 87.9 receiving yards per game, but the problem most weeks has been the lack of TDs. He has 4 TDs all season.

The Titans rank 29th against WRs, while allowing 267.7 PYPG (24th) and 21.9 PPG (13th). Hilton scored 29.3 FPs in W7 against the Titans. There’s a chance Hilton throws up a dud, but the match-up couldn’t be much more ideal.

  • TE: Delanie Walker $6400 (FanDuel) and $5700 (DraftKings)

I love Walker again this week in cash too. You’ll save $2000 (FD) or $1400 (DK) in salary by fading Rob Gronkowski this week. Gronks likely won’t be needed much this week, so I’ll gladly roster Walker in cash.

Walker has 11.8+ FPs in each of the last four games, including 30.4 FPs last week against GB. He scored 21.4 FPs in W7 against the Colts. Indianapolis rank 29th against TEs and I project Walker to score 20+ FPs at a fair price.

  • DST: New York Giants $4700 (FanDuel) and $3500 (DraftKings)

I’ll have a lot of exposure to the Chiefs DST ($5000 on FD and $3400 on DK) in cash again this week, but I wanted to talk about another team. The Giants DST offers a solid floor and lots of upside against a brutal Bears offense.

Alshon Jeffery is suspended (PEDs) and Cutler is the QB again this week despite having four turnovers last week. The Giants only average 6.6 FPPG, but they have 7 INTs and 8 sacks in their last three games.

If Cutler plays like last week, the Giants defense will have a field day picking him off.

FanDuel NFL Week 11 Picks

NFL week 11 duds at QB, RB, WE, TE and DST

  • QB: Matthew Stafford $7900 (FanDuel) and $6600 (DraftKings)

I know what you’re thinking, Matthew Stafford sure looks tempting against the Jaguars at home. Don’t do it! The Lions are coming off their bye week and I expect them to run the football more than usual now that they’re back home.

The Jaguars allow 25.9 PPG (26th) and 124.0 RYPG (29th), but surprisingly only give up 203.7 PYPG (4th). Stafford isn’t going to need to air the football out. Look for him to score below 20 FPs for the fourth consecutive game.

  • RB: Ezekiel Elliott $8700 (FanDuel) and $8000 (DraftKings)

Elliott just exploded for 43.9 FPs against the Steelers and will be on everyone’s radar, especially at home. However, this is a good week to fade him. Baltimore rank 1st against the run (71.3 RYPG) and 5th in points allowed (17.8 PPG).

Since week 3, Elliott only has one game below 20 FPs (Week 8 vs. PHI). The Eagles are strong against the run and were able to limit the rookie. Baltimore will be hungry to shutdown the rookie and stay atop the AFC North with a win.

  • WR: Jordy Nelson $7800 (FanDuel) and $7800 (DraftKings)

Rodgers is going to spread the love this week and that will hurt Nelson’s value. Nelson will likely see a lot of Norman in coverage and Rodgers will likely shy away from him and target Davante Adams, Randall Cobb or Ty Montgomery.

Nelson has seen 9, 13 and 18 targets the last three weeks. He has had 94+ receiving yards and 1 TD in each game. He has been hot and will be highly owned, but he’s worth fading in a tough match-up against Norman.

  • TE: Rob Gronkowski $8400 (FanDuel) and $7100 (DraftKings)

Gronkowski is listed as questionable, but he’ll be fine to play on Sunday against SF. The problem is the 49ers are only allowing 249.2 PYPG (14th), but they’ve been absolutely shredded in the run game all season.

Bill Belichick is likely to run the football a lot and leave San Francisco with an ugly win. Tom Brady could air it out and throw for 300+ passing yards, but it won’t be needed. Blount will see 20+ carries and Gronk’s targets will be down.

At his price you need a lot of production, but that’s definitely not guaranteed this week.

  • DST: Minnesota Vikings $4500 (FanDuel) and $3300 (DraftKings)

You could punt the Vikings DST on FanDuel, as they’re relatively cheap, but I’m fading them completely. Arizona still boast a talented offense. They can beat you through the air with Carson Palmer or on the ground with David Johnson.

The Vikings DST were almost an autoplay a month ago, but that has changed. The Vikings DST haven’t scored more than 8 FPs in four consecutive games and I don’t expect them to exceed that number this week either.

NFL week 11 ATS predictions

Bet on the NFL at the Bovada Sportsbook ($250 Free)

Indianapolis Colts -3 (-105)

This almost feels like a trap, but I’ll bite. The Colts (4-5) have won the last ten H2H games against the Titans (5-5) and 15 of the last 16. The Colts already beat the Titans in Tennessee (34-26) back in week 7 as well.

The Colts defense is terrible. They allow 28.4 PPG (29th), 287.9 PYPG (31st) and 114.9 RYPG (22nd). They need to work on shutting down the run, as DeMarco Murray can’t have a monster game.

Indy need to force Marcus Mariota and his inconsistent WRs to beat them. Andrew Luck and the Colts also have an edge as they’re coming off a bye. They’re healthy, rested and should be ready to make a run at the AFC South.

 
Share this page