Home / NFL / NFL Week 15 DFS Studs vs. Duds Predictions

 

I’m sure everyone is busy with it being a week before Christmas. I wanted to post the two NFL week 15 DFS articles nice and early this week, as I’m sure a lot of readers will be busier later in the week.

DraftKings Christmas Promotion 2016DraftKings just started a 12 Days of Giveaways promotion, so make sure you unwrap your gift daily.

The FanDuel Jingle Bowl is also running. This week you need to play the NFL Sunday Million and two other contests in order to earn a seat in the Weekly Jingle Bowl Free Play where everyone wins a prize.

There are also weekly promotions and great cash game action at FantasyAces.

*Statistics are from DraftKings

Studs to target in NFL week 15 DFS cash games

  • QB: Derek Carr $7900 (FanDuel) and $6300 (DraftKings)

I feel this week is a great spot to save at QB and spend up at RB/WR.

Carr may be hard to trust in cash after scoring 4.98 FPs last week against the Chiefs on the road, but Carr hasn’t been bad on the road typically. He also goes against a Chargers defense that allows 261.4 PYPG (25th) and 24.7 PPG (28th).

Prior to the dud, Carr had scored between 20.8 FPs and 22.4 FPs in three consecutive games.

  • RB: David Johnson $9800 (FanDuel) and $10,100 (DraftKings)

Johnson had a dud last week, as he only scored 18.1 FPs in a wild game against the Dolphins, but this is a great spot for him to bounce back. The Saints rank 27th against RBs, despite only allowing 98.4 RYPG (12th).

I expect Johnson to hit the +3 bonus for 100+ rushing yards and he could even hit the +3 bonus for 100+ receiving yards if he can break a big one. The sky is the limit for Johnson and I can’t see him killing LUs in this match-up.

  • WR: Odell Beckham Jr. $8600 (FanDuel) and $8000 (DraftKings)

I love Beckham Jr. in cash games. I feel he has the safest floor out of the top tier options at WR.

OBJ has scored 19.4+ FPs in five of the Giants last six games. That trend should continue at home where he averages 22.6 FPPG. The Lions are weak against the pass (252.5 PYPG – 20th), although they only allow 20.2 PPG (11th).

Beckham Jr. has only had one game at home where he scored single digits. Lock him up in cash.

  • TE: Cameron Brate $5700 (FanDuel) and $3800 (DraftKings)

Brate obviously isn’t a lock to avoid a dud, but I feel we need to go cheap at TE and spend on the elite RBs.

He has been a big piece of the Buccaneers pass game and I expect that to remain the same even if Adam Humphries is back this week. This is a great match-up, as the Cowboys rank 26th against TEs.

Brate is averaging 11.1 FPPG and he has 6 TDs already. At this price, he should exceed value on primetime.

  • DST: Green Bay Packers $4500 (FanDuel) and $3200 (DraftKings)

You can’t go wrong with the Packers DST this week against the Bears on the road. Chicago’s offense has been a mess and Matt Barkley is prone to throwing interceptions, although he hasn’t thrown one in two weeks.

Chicago’s offense averages 242.8 PYPG (17th), 101.3 RYPG (20th) and 15.9 PPG (30th). The Packers defense has stepped up the last several weeks – scoring 10.0 FPs, 8.0 FPs and 19.0 FPs in those games.

Green Bay’s DST also scored 12.0 FPs back in week 7 against the Bears.

FanDuel NFL Week 15 DFS

Duds to avoid in NFL week 15 cash games

  • QB: Tom Brady $8100(FanDuel) and $6700 (DraftKings)

The Broncos rank 1st against QBs and the Patriots will be playing at Mile High. This is a great week to fade Brady in all formats. I expect LeGarrette Blount to get a ton of work against Denver’s poor run defense (127.2 PYPG – 29th).

Brady really hasn’t had to explode for the Patriots the last several weeks. His floor is about 15.0 FPs and that’s too low when you’re spending up at QB. I wouldn’t fade Brady against most defenses, but the Broncos pass defense is legit.

Denver only allow 183.5 PYPG (1st) and 17.8 PPG (4th). The Patriots are also on a short week.

  • RB: DeMarco Murray $7400 (FanDuel) and $6900 (DraftKings)

Murray started the season by scoring 20+ FPs in nine of the Titans first ten games. However, he has since gone three games without cracking 17.0 FPs and with so many good RB targets this week, there’s no point rostering Murray.

The match-up isn’t bad. The Titans plays the Chiefs who rank 14th against RBs, but allow 122.9 RYPG (27th). I’m also concerned by the fact Derrick Henry is stealing a lot of touches, despite not producing nearly as well.

  • WR: Antonio Brown $8500 (FanDuel) and $8400 (DraftKings)

Brown is too expensive to roster in cash – he’s only viable in GPPs. Brown can explode any week, but he has scored less than 17.5 FPs in three of the Steelers last four games, which won’t cut when he’s priced as the #1/#2 WR.

The Steelers hit the road to play the Bengals in a division game on Sunday. Brown was held to 7.9 FPs in week 2 against Cincy and while I don’t expect him to score single digits in FPs, he won’t hit value.

Cincinnati rank 3rd against WRs, 12th against the pass (238.2 PYPG) and 12th in points allowed (20.5 PPG).

  • TE: Delanie Walker $6100 (FanDuel) and $3900 (DraftKings)

I have no idea why Walker is priced so high at FanDuel still. He’s tempting on DK at under $4000, but I’m still going to fade him in cash. He hasn’t been producing consistently, as the Titans offense has a lot of mouths to feed.

The Chiefs defense ranks 3rd against TEs and Walker comes into this game struggling. He has scored single digits in two of the Titans last three games. He has also only seen 10+ targets once this season.

There are better options at TE at a similar price, including my recommendation of Brate.

  • DST: Baltimore Ravens $4700 (FanDuel) and $3100 (DraftKings)

Baltimore’s DST has been performing great and have been consistent for cash players, so I expect them to be popular this week at home against the Eagles. I expect them to struggle coming off the short week, though.

Jimmy Smith appeared to injure his leg badly on MNF against the Patriots and that’ll really hurt the Ravens passing defense. Baltimore have the best defense in the NFL, but the Eagles offense have been playing much better lately.

NFL week 15 ATS predictions

Arizona Cardinals –2.5 (-110) at Bovada.lv

The Cardinals (5-7-1) host the Saints (5-8) during the afternoon slate on Sunday. Arizona are 4-2-1 at home and the Saints are just 2-4 on the road. Arizona only allows 201.8 PYPG (2nd), 96.8 RYPG (10th) and 19.9 PPG (10th).

New Orleans are coming off a disappointing 16-11 loss against the Bucs last week on the road. You can’t count out Drew Brees, but his road splits are poor again this season. Both teams need a win, but Arizona are playing better.

 
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